Ace, golden arm, elite stuff — the impressive Yamamoto profile | by Cary Osborne | Dec, 2023

by Cary Osborne

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a 25-year-old, historically elite, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.

That’s the top line of his resume and what he brings to the Major Leagues.

Yamamoto’s accomplishments in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, international competition and a dynamic arsenal of pitches will make for one of the most anticipated rookie seasons — and careers for that matter — in Dodger history.

That’s saying a lot.

But let’s go through some of the exemplary accomplishments of his past, his profile and recent transitions from Japanese league pitchers to get a feel for what could be ahead.

A Historical Run

Yamamoto just completed one of the most accomplished seasons in NPB history.

He was the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Eiji Sawamura Award winner (the league’s equivalent to Major League Baseball’s Cy Young Award) and threw his second career no-hitter on Sept. 9.

In his final game, he threw a complete game, striking out 14 batters, leading his Orix Buffaloes to a 5–1 win in Game 6 of the Japan Series — the league’s equivalent to the World Series.

Yamamoto’s 1.21 season ERA was the lowest by an NPB pitcher since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 in 2013. Yamamoto’s’ ERA in 2023 was exactly one run lower than the second-best individual ERA in the league. He surrendered 22 earned runs in 23 starts, allowed just two home runs and struck out 169 batters to 28 walks in 164 innings.

NPB’s Pacific League’s average ERA in 2023 was 3.15. Yamamoto’s ERA was nearly two runs below the league average (MLB’s league average was 4.33 in 2023. Blake Snell led all Major League pitchers with a 2.25 ERA).

The right-hander has won the Sawamura Award, the Pacific League’s MVP and has led the PL in ERA, wins and strikeouts each of the last three seasons.

His total ERA over that span is 1.44. In 75 games, he has allowed 88 total runs.

Yamamoto and Masaichi Kaneda, considered one of the greatest pitchers in Japanese League history, are the only pitchers with three consecutive Sawamura Awards.

A Golden Arm

Yamamoto is one of the most decorated international baseball players of the last half-decade.

He appeared in five games (allowing one earned run in five innings) out of the bullpen for gold-medal-winning Japan in the 2019 World Baseball Softball Confederation’s Premier 12 tournament. Yamamoto struck out two batters in one inning of work in the gold medal game, including recent San Francisco Giants free-agent singing Jung-Hoo Lee.

Yamamoto won an Olympic gold medal for Japan in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (played in 2021). He allowed two runs and struck out 18 batters in 11 1/3 innings.

Yamamoto was teammates with Shohei Ohtani on Japan’s 2023 World Baseball Classic championship team. Yamamoto allowed two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings, striking out 12 batters.

In the three big-stage competitions, he had a 1.90 ERA and struck out 36 batters in 23 2/3 innings.

The Stuff

Yamamoto threw five different pitches during the 2023 World Baseball Classic — a four-seam fastball, splitter, cutter, curveball and slider.

Baseball America rates Yamamoto overall at a 70 on the 20–80 scouting scale.

FanGraphs gives his command an 80 out of 80.

The mid-90s fastball, deceptive splitter, and sharp, looping curveball have been his most utilized pitches.

The Athletic’s Eno Harris gives his fastball a Kevin Gausman and Kodai Senga comp here. Both pitchers’ fastballs ranked in the top five percentile in the Majors in 2023, according to Statcast.

Fangraphs’ rated his splitter as his best pitch with a 70-grade and Baseball America noted Yamamoto’s exceptional command of the pitch.

The curveball’s shape gets compared here to Clayton Kershaw’s and Adam Wainwright’s.

Recent Transitions

Yamamoto will be in a whole new environment — more runs scored per game, more home runs, new ballparks. History tells us that there will be a transition, and the 1.21 ERA he had in Japan won’t be the expectation.

Senga recorded NPB’s second-best ERA to Yamamoto in 2022 at 1.94. Senga’s ERA in MLB last season was 2.98.

Yet that number ranked second in the National League.

The 30-year-old finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, made the NL All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.

Only three pitchers, since 2016, have logged at least 100 innings in their Major League rookie season after pitching 100 innings the previous season in NPB — Senga, Yusei Kikuchi and Kenta Maeda.

Kikuchi had a 3.08 ERA in 2018 in Japan (163 2/3 innings) and a 5.46 ERA with Seattle in 2019 (161 2/3 innings). He has a 4.71 ERA in five MLB seasons.

Maeda went from a 2.09 ERA in 2015 in Japan to a 3.48 ERA with the Dodgers in 2016. He also finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting and has generally been a mid-rotation starter for seven big league seasons.

Yamamoto doesn’t have to look far, though, to find an elite starting pitcher in Japan who became elite in the Majors.

Ohtani’s best pitching season in Japan was 2016 when he had a 1.86 ERA. Six years later in the Majors, he had a 2.33 ERA and finished fourth in the American League Cy Young Award balloting.